- paul r ehrlich, the population bomb published in 1968, on its face, the simon-ehrlich bet was about the future price of five metals between 1980 and 1990. Ehrlich bet they would be more expensive and simon believed they would be, adjusting for inflation, cheaper simon and his rational optimism prevailed, and he collected a check for his winnings from ehrlich by mail. Reviewed by robert m whaples | humans are not butterflies paul sabin explores a half-century of environmental policy and environmentalism through the lens of two outsized personalities--biologist paul ehrlich and economist julian simon. In 1980, biologist paul ehrlich and economist julian simon entered into a bet over whether the real prices of five resources would increase or fall between 1980 and 1990 because the real prices of the five resources declined, simon won the bet.
Back in 1980, the great libertarian economist, julian simon, and the prepetually wrong malthusian biologist, paul ehrlich, entered into a little wager regarding population growth and resource scarcity they decided on using the inflation-adjusted prices of five metals to decide the bet simon. In 1980 economist julian simon bet biologist paul ehrlich that the price of five commodity metals would decrease over the next 10 years today on the program pierre desrochers of the university of toronto mississauga joins us to explain how the bet came about, who won, and what was really at stake. Based on preliminary research for the ultimate resource, simon and paul ehrlich made a famous wager in 1980, betting on a mutually agreed upon measure of resource scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990.
The bet: paul ehrlich, julian simon, and our gamble over earth s future [paul sabin] on amazoncom free shipping on qualifying offers are we headed for a world of scarce resources and environmental catastrophe, or will innovation and markets yield greater prosperity in 1980. Ehrlich's account of what happened can be found in ehrlich and ehrlich (1996, 100-104) see also norman myers' account in myers and simon (1994, 99-100) simon's discussion of the bet's outcome is in simon (1996. Show notes and mp3: in 1980 economist julian simon bet biologist paul ehrlich that the price of five commodity metals. One day in october 1990, the iconoclastic economist julian l simon walked out to get the mail at his house in the washington suburb of chevy chase, md in a small envelope sent from palo alto, calif, he found a sheet of metal prices, along with a check for $57607 from the biologist paul r ehrlich.
Ehrlich could select any raw material he wanted - copper, tin, whatever - and select any date in the future, and simon would bet that the commodity's price on that date would be lower than what it was at the time of the wager simon though they would be higher. If i were a gambler, i would take even money that england will not exist in the year 2000 - paul ehrlich, 1971 in 1968, paul ehrlich published the book the population bomb. You started the bet any year during the 1980s simon won eight of the ten decadal start years during the 1990s things changed, however, with simon the decadal winners in four start years and ehrlich winning six - 60% of the time and if we extend the bet into the current decade, taking simon at. It was a bet made in 1980 between business professor julian l simon and biologist paul ehrlich, betting on resource scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990.
Simon was highly skeptical of such claims, so proposed a wager, telling ehrlich to select any raw material he wanted and select any date more than a year away, and simon would bet that the commodity's price on that date would be lower than what it was at the time of the wager. Start studying chapter 2 economist julian simon and ecologist paul ehrlich made a bet in 1980 about whether human ingenuity or use of natural resources limits. Paul sabin of yale university and author of the bet talks with econtalk host russ roberts about his book sabin uses the bet between paul ehrlich and julian simon--a bet over whether natural resources are getting scarcer as population grows--as a lens for examining the evolution of the environmental movement and its status today. This site has the bet that julian simon and paul ehrlich made in 1980 as well as the results of the wager and some of the post-bet dialog between simon and ehrlich. When ehrlich commented in 1980 that he would make an even money bet that england would not exist in the year 2000, economist julian l simon had heard enough simon decided to book an unusual bet.
In 1980, julian simon, the recently deceased economist and author of the ultimate resource, offered to environmentalists a wager based on his assertion that the price of any raw material would indefinitely decline on a future date the wager was taken up by paul ehrlich, author of the best- selling. It's a famous bet in the ongoing battle to try and get environmentalists to understand economics the bet between julian simon, the economist, and paul ehrlich, the environmentalist ehrlich. In a famous 1980 wager, the biologist paul ehrlich, author of the 1968 blockbuster the population bomb, bet the economist julian simon that the prices of five metals—chromium, copper, nickel. Simon was willing to take the opposite side of the bet, saying that the price of the commodity would decline instead ehrlich snidely accepted simon's astonishing offer before other greedy people jump in.
Ehrlich bet simon $10,000 that the prices of five metals (copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten) would increase over a decade the prices declined sharply, and simon won the bet the simon. In 1980, julian simon offered to let doomsayer paul ehrlich choose any commodity metals he liked, and if their inflation-adjusted prices increased by 1990. So what was the famous bet in october 1980, ehrlich and simon drew up a futures contract obligating simon to sell ehrlich the same quantities that could be purchased for $1,000 of five metals. In 1980, the biologist paul ehrlich and the economist julian simon made a famous decade-long bet ehrlich had written a bestseller titled the population bomb and become a celebrated advocate of.